Guru's Golden Picks: CFL Experiment Week 3

[AFLGuru]

ATS: 4-1 (+6.30 units)
Totals: 1-1 (-0.03 units)
Moneylines: 0-2 (-2.00 units)
1st half: 2-1 (+1.48 units)
2nd half: 2-1 (+2.87 units)
Overall: 9-6 (+8.62 units)

Argh, I can't resist, even though at some point, "Losipeg" in going to put up a decent game... I like this Calgary team after showing a lot of heart coming back against a very tough Argos team, and I think Losipeg is in for another beating this week... rule of thumb says that the Blue Bombers are going to beat someone this year, and it will likely be in the form that Ottawa beat Montreal this past week, and better yet that they're going to cover someone, but in this instance, the Losipeg has shown absolutely no signs of improvement from week 1 to week 2, and I just can't resist only laying 3 points in a game I feel, in the long haul MAY bite me in this league...

Calgary (-3) @ Losipeg (3 units -113)

Also liking BC to trounce Ottawa after last week's SHOCKING comeback, and the Alouettes to put their foot down and show supremacy in this league by beating Edmonton... Also over in the Saskatchewan game, but probably as a very weak "action" play, to give me a good reason to listen to this game on the internet... Once again, an experiment here that I know I'm betting too many games and too much stuff, but I'm learning... and I'm due to nose-dive eventually, so tread very carefully.

--AFLGuru:toast:

 

[scottw]

For the week I took CAL -3, MON -2 (bought the 1/2), and another teaser with BC -6 paired with SAS +10.

 

[AFLGuru]

Maybe I'll just play on you this week after the debacle(s) last weekend Scott... I was leaning all of the same ways with BC killing Ottawa and the Rough Riders + points on the road... we'll see...

 

[scottw]

I wanted BC and SAS non-teased, but I hate to lay 13, especially after all the backdooring last week, and getting only 3 with SAS seemed a little touchy. I don't know about that SAS-TOR over. I almost played it under 48 but then about 2 minutes after it opened at 48 at OLY it ticked down to 46.5, so that made my decision to stay away an easy one. Could only play it under, as TOR has suspended Baker for this game and they have little offense, and SAS's strength also seems to be the D. CAL on the road as favorites is tough, but WIN is not only bad, they are hurt, as both Roberts and Stegall got banged around last week. If CAL does not turn it over 5 times again this week they should win this one. And MON, well, still can't explain that meltdown, but it should have them focused big-time this week, and they are very good at home. EDM has not played anyone decent yet.

 

[HPark1]

watch for WR Dominguez's status. Already without Keith in the backfield that Saskatchewan offense looks very weak if Dominguez doesn't suit up.

 

[corporeal]

I think Holmes proved that Keith being out hasn't hurt the team at all. With Dorsey taking over on PR and proving just as able as Holmes was, and Holmes rushing for 223 yards in a game and a half (10 carries for 65 in game 1, that he was only in for the 1st and 4th quarter), they've got absolutely nothing to worry about. It'd be nice to get Dominguez back, but remember that Toronto lost Baker as well.

 

[HPark1]

I disagree. Holmes is a good back who has played great in this early season. He is no Kenton Keith. Dorsey did not impress me at all, did a lot of dancing but has no true speed or vision.

Dominguez is huge, he can be the big play reciever and their possesion guy.

Baker too is a legitimate loss, but I wouldn't call him an impact reciever.

---------
Agree with the Calgary pick AFLG. If Burris can limit his mistakes they should win by 6-10 points. Status of Glenn and Stegall is of note.

gl

 

[AFLGuru]

Hugh Smith (I think the last name is Smith) seemed to be an adequate replacement for Dominquez at WR... seems to be quite a good athlete (as I remember from his days at relatively local South Florida) and stretched the field a lot.

 

[scottw]

Stegall is still having dizzy spells and is doubtful Thursday.

 

[AFLGuru]

Someone asked about the sharpness of CFL lines...

This week Calgary was -3 to open, I believe -105 both ways. I got -113 at -3. Now the line is -6 at -107.

BC opened up -13 at -105 against Ottawa, and is now -14.5 at -110... Those are the most drastic line movements I've seen in terms of actual lines so far. Over/unders seem to be a bit more stagnant, with Toronto o/us constantly dropping and Montreal's constantly rising, but in no cases have I seen more than 2-3 points at Pinnacle. Perhaps someone has seen different elsewhere?

Liking my Calgary pick more and more the more the line moves. Perhaps I will try to take a middle if the line jumps to 7 by game time, but I just don't see Calgary putting up anything less than a very stellar outing here even though they're travelling to Losipeg.

 

[JeffH]

Both QB Kevin Glenn and SB Milt Steagell are on the injured list for the game tonight.

http://www.cfl.ca/index.php?module=newser&func=display&topicnum=1&nid=5401

 

[scottw]

Actually, CAL opened -2 at OLY on Monday. It was -2 for about 10 minutes before going right to -3. I didn't grab it because I was gunshy after grabbing SAS -4.5 last week only to see it drop to -2.5. I got CAL at -3 -105 at PIN on Tuesday.

 

[AFLGuru]

Tee Martin in wind and rain? Sounds like a good time... Here's to hoping the weather keeps it up...

Calgary (1st quarter ml) @ Losipeg (1 unit -145)
Calgary (1st half ml) @ Losipeg (1 unit -162)

These plays more or less compliment each other... normally I wouldn't load up on these plays (and I'm counting them in with my moneyline plays), but personally, I believe if the weather is as bad as advertised, that Tee Martin is going to have one hell of a time trying to throw the ball while the weather keeps up. While I remain afraid of backdoor covers and home dog comebacks, I remain confident that I am on the right side of this game, and I will remain confident in my selections regardless of how others have taken this game. I hope the mass majority is right and not the sharp player in this instance.

 

[MarkieMark+]

Good Luck Guru. They look like WINNERS to me!

MM

 

[AFLGuru]

12-0 Stampeders after 1...

Calgary (1st quarter ml) @ Losipeg W (+1 unit)

 

[AFLGuru]

Calgary (1st quarter ml) @ Losipeg W (+1 unit)
Calgary (1st half ml) @ Losipeg W (+1 unit)

15-7 Stamps at the half

 

[AFLGuru]

Does anyone know how the wind works in the 2nd half? Will Winnepeg have the wind in the 3rd quarter or 4th quarter?

 

[scottw]

I've been trying to figure that out. Seems like every game the team that receives the opening kickoff also gets the wind first. Maybe in the CFL the strategy is to take the wind in the last quarter of the half. If so, CAL will have it last, but I just don't know.

 

[scottw]

The CAL announcers just said that the idea is to take the wind in the 2nd and 4th quarters because they are the "longer" quarters.

 

[AFLGuru]

Figured it out too late... kind of...

The team that wins the toss at the beginning of the game gets to choose ball or side. I'd assume they take the ball... because the team that didn't make the decision gets to decide ball or side... obviously they take the ball. That being said, Calgary won the toss and took the ball. Winnepeg took the wind with them in the 2nd quarter. Winnepeg then took the ball in the 2nd half and Calgary took the wind in the 4th quarter. So it works just like the NFL for future reference.

That being said, I wouldn't have made a play on the 2nd half of this game. If Winnepeg was getting the wind in the 4th quarter, I was taking over 24 in the second half.

The wind produced an 80 some odd yard single... unreal wind out there.